How a Strong El Niño Could Reshape Agriculture and Fertilizer Markets

A potentially strong El Niño event is forecast to develop through the second half of 2026 and into 2027, creating significant uncertainty for global agricultural production, commodity trade, and financial markets. While climate events often trigger broad market concerns, analysis shows the impacts are highly differentiated by region, crop, and time. Understanding this nuance is critical for assessing risk and opportunity across the value chain. Based on insights from the S&P Global webinar, How Could a Strong El Niño Impact Agriculture, Fertilizer Markets, and Investment Opportunities?, this article examines the primary channels of disruption. We explore how weather anomalies translate into financial exposure and why—counterintuitively—fertilizer demand has historically shown resilience, while prices remain more exposed to supply-side and geopolitical risks. Watch our replay: https://www.spglobal.com/market-intelligence/en/news-insights/research/2026/08/el-nino-impact-agriculture-fertilizer-markets-2026