How AI Simulates Thousands of Tropical Cyclone Seasons

AI-powered tropical cyclone simulation is changing how the world models hurricane risk. In this video, AXA and NVIDIA show how FourCastNet 3 on NVIDIA Earth-2 generates thousands of synthetic cyclone seasons in the time it would take a physics-based model to run just one — giving insurers and risk teams an unprecedented view of storm activity across every major ocean basin. The historical record covers roughly 45 years of observed storms. That sounds like a lot, until you need to price risk for the next 50. A single AI ensemble member runs in under 10 minutes on one H100 GPU, making it practical to simulate at a scale that physics-based models simply cannot match. The result: a dense, global picture of where cyclones travel, how often they co-occur in the same season, and what the historical record was never long enough to show. This work was presented at GTC Berlin, October 2026, as part of an ongoing AXA and NVIDIA collaboration to apply machine learning to catastrophe risk modeling. Read the announcement: https://blogs.nvidia.com/blog/europe-earth-2-open-models-weather-climate-prediction Learn more about NVIDIA Earth-2: https://www.nvidia.com/en-us/high-performance-computing/earth-2/