Peter Nolan: Flattening the Curve: How Ireland Modelled COVID

Flattening the Curve: How Ireland Modelled COVID Peter Nolan A tutorial on population epidemic models and a description and critique of the one used in Ireland's official NPHET forecast. I look also at the Northern Ireland models and alternative approaches using agent and social network approaches also. I describe the logic of Bayes' Theorem (with help from a Coronavirus plushie) and the libraries used in Python including PyMC and the Stan language and a workflow for the Bayesian estimates. Talk room 1 (400 people) Sun 4:50 pm - 5:20 pm